Potential health impact of transport traffic restriction in the center of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan

Abstract

The transport traffic is known to be the major reason for air pollution in urban areas. Two pollutants should be considered with attention: the particles with diameter of less than 10 microns (PM10) and carbon monoxide. The paper discusses application of time-series and geographical studies to the investigation of air pollution health effects as well as attempts to estimate potential health impact of restriction traffic in the center of Baku by 25% based on local data published in 2012(4) and 2013(5).

Time-series studies investigate association between short-term variations in air pollution levels and health events counts. Confounding factors that change slowly over the time do not introduce much distortion for the association in question as population is used as its own control.

Geographical studies aimed at investigation of association between long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic health outcomes. They are known to be prone to confounding because they compare populations from different locations. The evidence of air pollution effects from time-series and geographical studies is complementary. The problem of traffic air pollution is being intensified with each year and becomes one of the main public health priorities in Baku. Assuming that the results of six cities study (3) can be generalized to Baku the total number of preventable annual deaths should be around 419 in case of restriction traffic in the center of Baku by 25%. For the low border of 95%CI the result is as much as 153.

Despite uncertainties in assumptions the produced evidence fully justifies the proposed intervention.